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The Lee Carter Method for Estimating and Forecasting Mortality: An Application for Argentina
Andreozzi, Lucía, Blaconá, María Teresa y Arnesi, Nora Elba.
The 31st International Symposium on Forecasting. International Institute of Forecasters, Praga, 2011.
Dirección estable:
https://www.aacademica.org/lucia.andreozzi/38
Resumen
This paper describes the application of the Lee-Carter model to age-specific death rates by gender in Argentina. These rates are available for the period that goes from 1979 to 2006. The index of the level of mortality for each gender, and the shape and sensitivity coefficients for nine age groups were obtained through the Lee-Carter method. The autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) and the space-state (SSM) models are used to forecast the general index for the time period that goes from 2007 to 2011 in order to project life expectancy at birth using life tables.
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Para ver una copia de esta licencia, visite https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es.