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Fiscal Sustainability and Crises. The Case of Argentina
Araoz María Florencia.
XLI Reunión Anual de la Asociación Argentina de Economía Política. Asociación Argentina de Economía Política, Salta, 2006.
  Dirección estable:  https://www.aacademica.org/mfaraoz/16
  ARK: https://n2t.net/ark:/13683/pFBr/zmg
Resumen
This paper contributes to the study of the economic history of argentine crises by analyzing the fiscal sustainability for the period 1865-2002. Fiscal deficits are sustainable if the current market value of debt equals to the discounted sum of expected future surpluses. Following a large literature started by Hamilton and Flavin (1986) sustainability is empirically tested by finding out if revenues and expenditures (including interest payments) are cointegrated along a given period. It is found that Argentina never had “strong” fiscal sustainability. At most, it reached weak sustainability for some sub periods and no sustainability at all for 1950-1989. Interestingly, sustainability gets worse as the economy went from mostly open to relatively close.
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